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Forecasting Bitcoin’s peak through technical analysis


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Forecasting Bitcoin's peak through technical analysis

Based on multiple patterns, charts, and technical analysis, BTA researcher points out that the ATH near $65,000 Bitcoin reached in April 2021 is not yet the peak of this bull run.

Number of searches for ‘Bitcoin’ on Google

In the past, at the time of the market peak, the term “Bitcoin” was highly searched by Internet users and always increased exponentially when compared to the previous bull run.

In the current cycle, this hasn’t happened yet. In fact, the number of searches for the term “Bitcoin” did not exceed the peak of the previous bull run.

bitcoin search

Stock to Flow Pattern

Stock to flow (S2F) is defined as the relationship between the available stock and the production rate of a resource.

stock to flow

The red arrows are the tops of previous growth cycles. Green arrows are secondary peaks (Bitcoin 2013 cycle had 2 peaks). The area inside the white rectangle represents the top of this bull run.

Case 1: Is the last $64,804 the top for this rally?

Looking at the S2F chart, the ATH of 64,804 USD that Bitcoin reached in April 2021 may still not be the top because:

  • It is not a sharp vertex, but a flat vertex (after peaking, it is sideways). This is unlike any peak we’ve seen before.
  • When BTC peaked in previous cycles, the price line was 463 days away from the Stock to Flow line (blue line). In this phase, the BTC price line is still sticking to the blue line.
Case 2: Could this be an extra peak like 2013?

We see a minor peak in the 2013 cycle (green arrow). However, now the BTC price chart has a significant increase from the 463-day S2F.

During this cycle, investors have not seen any sub-peaks increase so significantly. Therefore, this may just be a correction period for the market to then increase more sustainably.

If the current cycle holds true for the STF, Bitcoin could reach $100,000 to $250,000 (pink line)

Golden Ratio 51% – 49%

This model of TradingShot is used to determine the completion time of a bull cycle.

Experts found that the time from the bottom of the crypto winter to the halving is 51% of the entire bull cycle. While the remaining period from halving to peak is 49%.

bitcoin 51 49

According to this model, the cycle from halving to peak is 504 days, which means that the peak will fall in early October 2021.

2 year moving average (2-Year moving average)

The 2-Year Moving Average is used as a long-term investment tool.

It marks periods where buying or selling Bitcoin during those periods will generate outstanding returns.

Buying Bitcoin when the price drops below the green line produces historically superior returns. When the price breaks above the red line, it means that investors should prepare to take profits.

2 year moving average

This is one of the best rated indicators. This indicator is noticed when it accurately shows the top and bottom of the 2013 and 2018 cycle.

This cycle Bitcoin price has not yet broken out of the red line.

NUPL looks at Unrealized Profit/Loss to determine if the entire network is currently in a profit or loss position.

When the red line enters the Euphoria zone, the market is about to top. As far as the current chart goes, Bitcoin price is not at its peak yet.

nupl

This metric looks at Bitcoin miners and their revenue. It explores market cycles from a mining revenue perspective.

Miners have to sell BTC to cover the cost of hardware in a market where prices are extremely volatile. As a result, the revenue the trainer generates can affect the price over time.

Historically, the Puell Multiple shows that when value enters the red area above the chart, Bitcoin price peaks.

puell multiple

Currently, this indicator is far from the upper limit. According to this chart, the Bitcoin price has not peaked yet.

MVRV Z-Score analyzes the blockchain to identify periods where Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to “fair value.”

When the Z-Score (red) line enters the pink zone, it means that Bitcoin has peaked. This index accurately predicts the peak of 2013 and the peak of 2018.

z score

Again, according to this chart, Bitcoin has yet to approach its peak price.

This indicator correctly identifies the peak price of BTC in previous cycles.

The rate of RHODL entering the red band signals that the market is approaching the top of the cycle. This is a good time for investors to take profits.

rhodl

According to this indicator, BTC price is still a long way from the top.

Reserve Risk shows confidence among long-term Bitcoin holders relative to the price of Bitcoin at a given point in time.

When confidence is high and price is low (green zone), this is an attractive time to invest in Bitcoin. When confidence is low and price is high (red zone), investors should take profits.

reserve risk

Currently, the indicator shows that investors have not yet entered the risk zone. So, not yet a sign that BTC has peaked.

Rainbow charts are a fun way to look at long-term price movements, ignoring daily fluctuations. The color bands follow logarithmic regression.

Inside,

Deep red: The bubble is extremely inflated
Light red: Serious situation, sell now
Dark Orange: FOMO is strong
Light Orange: Is this a bubble?
Gold: Hold on to BTC
Light green: The price is still attractive
Dark green: Accumulate
Light Blue: Buy
Dark Blue: Cheap
Currently BTC is in the yellow zone, so there is no sign of the top yet.

bitcoin rainbow chart

In the past, it was predicted that the Bitcoin price would reach $10,000 on November 22, 2017. In fact, BTC reached this price mark on November 27, 2017.

If based on this chart, it is predicted that BTC will hit the $ 100,000 mark on July 16, 2021. Today is 5/7, let’s wait and see.

Conclude

Although the indicators use different calculation methods, the common point is that it is not yet confirmed that BTC has peaked. So, the last drop could just be a correction in this bull cycle for BTC.


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